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PRMIA Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Sample Questions:

1. The probability of default of a security over a 1 year period is 3%. What is the probability that it would not have defaulted at theend of four years from now?

A) 11.47%
B) 88.00%
C) 12.00%
D) 88.53%

2. As the persistence parameter under EWMA is lowered, which of the following would be true:

A) The model will react faster to market shocks
B) The model will give lower weight to recent returns
C) High variance from the recent past will persist for longer
D) The model will react slower to market shocks

3. Which of the following distributions is generally not used for frequency modeling for operational risk

A) Binomial
B) Gamma
C) Poisson
D) Negative binomial

4. Which of the following statements is true:
I. Recovery rate assumptions can be easily made fairly accurately given past data available from credit rating agencies.
II. Recovery rate assumptions are difficult to make given the effect of the business cycle, nature of the industry and multiple other factors difficult to model.
III. The standard deviation of observed recovery rates is generally very high, making any estimate likely to differ significantly from realized recovery rates.
IV. Estimation errors for recovery rates are not a concern as they are not directionally biased and will cancel each other out over time.

A) I, II and IV
B) II and IV
C) III and IV
D) II and III

5. There are two bonds in a portfolio, each with a marketvalue of $50m. The probability of default of the two bonds over a one year horizon are 0.03 and 0.08 respectively. If the default correlation is zero, what is the one year expected loss on this portfolio?

A) $11m
B) $1.38m
C) $5.26m
D) $5.5m

Solutions: